So much has been happening lately that it’s hard to know what is most deserving to talk about. Outside the US, the biggest news is that the middle east is further accelerating its long post-Arab Spring slide, with Iraq plunging back into civil war and tensions between Israel and Palestine yet again escalating. Here at home, meanwhile, the Supreme Court has ruled against the Obama Administration on issues ranging from mandated contraception vs. religious freedom to “recess” presidential appointments.
Perhaps the strangest news, however, is that the current business cycle expansion (the economic recovery” turned 5 years old in June. This comes at the heels of revelations that just a month prior, we finally reached pre-recession levels of total employment (really no achievement at all, since growth in the potential labor force thoughout all this time still leaves a massive jobs gap. Not only is it unprecedented that the 5th birthday of the recovery comes only one month after a return to pre-recession employment levels, but it’s also unprecedented that such a large output gap remains at a point where we’re likely closer to the next recession than the end of the last one. At 61 months, it is now past the average of 58 months for all post-war recoveries.
Now that the party has died down, its time to face some ugly truths. First of all, longevity does not imply good health. Despite repeated predictions, this recovery has proven to be neither broad-based nor robust, and unfortunately, its running out of time to ever show sustained periods of health. From indicators ranging from GDP growth to income growth to productivity growth (etc, etc), there has been sub-par performance. There are many plausible reasons why (both supply and demand-side explanations), which have been discussed to the point of exhaustion. I’ll re-list the main ones anyway:
- contractionary fiscal policy
- inadvertently contractionary monetary policy? (see Vox.com explanation)
- lingering effects of private debt deleveraging on consumer spending
- lack of public investment in physical & nonphysical capital
- High energy costs
- Business uncertainty (due to regulations, policy ambiguity, shaky macroeconomic environment, etc.)
- High or complex taxes, especially corporate taxes
Considering that this year is shaping up to be another economic disappointment recovery-wise, and the recovery’s rapid aging, we now face the troubling prospect of entering the next recession far from having truly recovered from the last one. By recovered, I mean not just a complete closing of the output gap. My definition also includes labor market healing, such as a reversal of skills erosion and a return to full employment, as well as meaningful gains in median income and wealth. Since it is increasingly likely that none of this will happen, would a small recession now be far more painful than usual? And what will we do policy-wise? Monetary policy is, at least in terms of fed funds targeting, is as loose as it can get, and its doubtful the federal government will be willing to pursue aggressive fiscal stimulus like they did in 2008 and 2009.
Although it is good news that the recovery is 5, and I wish it a belated happy birthday, its longevity should not make us complacent about past, present, or future performance. Overall, past performance has been weak, present performance is weak, and it is likely that, in the near future, only more pain will appear. It’s a rather sad, but realistic, outlook.
The clock is ticking…